\u{1F3C6}
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
Five gold medals on the line. The brackets are set. Here are our model's picks for every final and bronze match at the SXY Newport Beach Open.
Men's Singles
Hunter Johnson
SR\u2122 1880 \u00b7 59.3%
Women's Singles
Anna Leigh Waters
SR\u2122 2028 \u00b7 83.8%
Men's Doubles
Johns / Tardio
SR\u2122 2016 \u00b7 67.8%
Women's Doubles
ALW / Bright
SR\u2122 2013 \u00b7 79.4%
Mixed Doubles
Johns / ALW
SR\u2122 2095 \u00b7 90.4%
\u{1F947} GOLD MEDAL MATCHES
\u2642 Men's Pro Singles \u2014 GOLD
[1] Hunter Johnson vs [2] Federico Staksrud
The top two seeds deliver. Johnson cruised past Haworth 11-7, 11-9 in the semis. Staksrud gutted out a 3-game battle vs Alshon (10-12, 11-3, 11-9). Our model gives the edge to Johnson's consistency, but Staksrud's clutch factor in that comeback can't be ignored.
\u{1F947} Model Pick
Hunter Johnson
SR\u2122 1880 \u00b7 [1] seed \u00b7 59.3% win prob \u00b7 H2H 2-2 \u25b6
Dominant semifinal win over Haworth. Higher SR\u2122 and the [1] seed, but the H2H is tied 2-2 with Staksrud. Johnson's 68 clutch rating and 33 volatility (very steady) make him the slight favorite in a tight final.
\u{1F948} Opponent
Federico Staksrud
SR\u2122 1815 \u00b7 [2] seed \u00b7 40.7% \u00b7 3-game comeback in SF \u25b6
Survived a classic semifinal vs Alshon, dropping the first game 10-12 before winning the next two. Staksrud's 56 clutch rating is lower, but he proved he can handle pressure. The defending Cape Coral champion won't go quietly.
\u2640 Women's Pro Singles \u2014 GOLD
[1] Anna Leigh Waters vs [5] Lea Jansen
ALW dispatched Kaitlyn Christian 11-7, 11-9 in the semis. Jansen pulled off the bracket's biggest upset, surviving a 3-game war vs [4] Buckner (13-11, 9-11, 11-9) after beating [2] Fahey in the quarters. But ALW is 8-0 lifetime against Jansen.
\u{1F947} Model Pick
Anna Leigh Waters
SR\u2122 2028 \u00b7 [1] seed \u00b7 83.8% \u00b7 8-0 H2H vs Jansen \u25b6
The most lopsided gold medal match on the board. ALW's 2028 SR\u2122 is 286 points above Jansen. 90 clutch rating, 13 volatility (ice cold). She's 8-0 lifetime against Jansen. This would be one of the biggest upsets in PPA history.
\u{1F948} Opponent
Lea Jansen
SR\u2122 1742 \u00b7 [5] seed \u00b7 16.2% \u00b7 Upset run through QF+SF \u25b6
Jansen is on a Cinderella run, beating [2] Fahey in the QF and [4] Buckner in a gutsy 3-game semifinal. She's playing with house money at this point. The 0-8 record vs ALW is daunting, but she's never been in better form heading into a final.
\u2642\u2642 Men's Pro Doubles \u2014 GOLD
[1] Johns / Tardio vs [2] Alshon / Patriquin
The top two seeds meet in the final as expected. Johns/Tardio handled Staksrud/Daescu in straight sets (11-6, 11-9). Alshon/Patriquin demolished Collin Johns/Len Yang 11-3, 11-3. Our model likes the [1] seed's SR\u2122 edge, but the [2] seed is peaking.
\u{1F947} Model Pick
Ben Johns / Gabriel Tardio
SR\u2122 2016 \u00b7 [1] seed \u00b7 67.8% \u00b7 H2H 1-0 \u25b6
Combined SR\u2122 of 2016 vs 1886. Johns brings the highest IQ in pickleball, Tardio brings raw power. They've beaten this exact pair before and their semifinal win was clinical. The GOAT in a gold medal match is never the wrong pick.
\u{1F948} Opponent
Christian Alshon / Hayden Patriquin
SR\u2122 1886 \u00b7 [2] seed \u00b7 32.2% \u00b7 Dominant SF \u25b6
Their 11-3, 11-3 demolition of Collin Johns/Len Yang was the most dominant semifinal performance of the week. Young, athletic, and riding momentum. If they can sustain that energy level, they have the tools to push Johns/Tardio.
\u2640\u2640 Women's Pro Doubles \u2014 GOLD
[1] Waters / Bright vs [3] Todd / Rohrabacher
ALW/Bright cruised past Schneemann/Pisnik 11-9, 11-4. The surprise: Todd/Rohrabacher upset [2] seed Jorja Johnson/Tyra Hurricane Black in the semis, flipping the script on our pre-tournament pick for a competitive final.
\u{1F947} Model Pick
Anna Leigh Waters / Anna Bright
SR\u2122 2013 \u00b7 [1] seed \u00b7 79.4% \u00b7 Most dominant WD pairing \u25b6
SR\u2122 gap of 234 points. ALW's 80 clutch rating paired with Bright's aggression makes them the clear favorites. Todd/Rohrabacher have the athleticism to compete, but ALW/Bright are a tier above everyone in women's doubles.
\u{1F948} Opponent
Parris Todd / Rachel Rohrabacher
SR\u2122 1779 \u00b7 [3] seed \u00b7 20.6% \u00b7 Upset [2] in semis \u25b6
They took down the [2] seed Jorja Johnson/Tyra Hurricane Black in straight sets to reach the final. Both have top-tier singles talent that translates to doubles firepower. Riding confidence, but the SR\u2122 gap is massive.
\u2642\u2640 Mixed Pro Doubles \u2014 GOLD
[1] Johns / Waters vs [10] Oncins / Pisnik
The biggest mismatch of Championship Sunday. Johns/ALW demolished Daescu/Todd 11-8, 11-1 in the semis. Meanwhile, Oncins/Pisnik pulled off the tournament's biggest upset, stunning [2] JW Johnson/Jorja Johnson. Our model gives them just a 9.6% shot.
\u{1F947} Model Pick
Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters
SR\u2122 2095 \u00b7 [1] seed \u00b7 90.4% \u00b7 390-point ELO edge \u25b6
Combined SR\u2122 of 2095 vs 1706 is a 389-point gap \u2014 the largest in any gold medal match this tournament. The two best players in pickleball on the same side of the net. 86 clutch rating combined. Brick wall favorite.
\u{1F948} Opponent
Eric Oncins / Tina Pisnik
SR\u2122 1706 \u00b7 [10] seed \u00b7 9.6% \u00b7 Cinderella run \u25b6
The story of the tournament. A [10] seed that upset [2] JW/Jorja Johnson in the semis. They beat Bright/Patriquin in the quarters too. Oncins/Pisnik are playing with house money and anything can happen in a 2-game format \u2014 but the SR\u2122 gap says it'll take a miracle.
\u{1F949} BRONZE MEDAL MATCHES
\u2642 Men's Singles \u2014 BRONZE
[3] Haworth vs [4] Alshon
Both semifinal losers meet for bronze. Haworth fell to Johnson 11-7, 11-9. Alshon lost a heartbreaker to Staksrud (10-12, 11-3, 11-9 \u2014 won the first game but couldn't close). Our model slightly favors Haworth on SR\u2122 and a 3-1 H2H edge.
\u{1F949} Model Pick
Christopher Haworth
SR\u2122 1850 \u00b7 57.6% \u00b7 H2H 3-1 vs Alshon \u25b6
Higher SR\u2122 and a dominant 3-1 H2H record vs Alshon. 73 clutch rating vs 60. Haworth should have the edge, but Alshon's volatility (23, very low) means he rarely beats himself.
\u2640 Women's Singles \u2014 BRONZE
[3] K. Christian vs [4] Buckner
A coin-flip bronze match. Christian lost to ALW 11-7, 11-9 in the semis \u2014 a respectable showing. Buckner lost a 3-game heartbreaker to Jansen (13-11, 9-11, 11-9). Model gives Christian the slightest edge despite Buckner's 3-1 H2H advantage.
\u{1F949} Model Pick
Kaitlyn Christian
SR\u2122 1773 \u00b7 52.9% \u00b7 Buckner leads H2H 3-1 \u25b6
Razor-thin edge on SR\u2122 (1773 vs 1752). Despite Buckner's 3-1 H2H advantage, our model trusts Christian's slightly higher rating. This is essentially a pick'em.
\u2642\u2642 Men's Doubles \u2014 BRONZE
[4] Staksrud / Daescu vs [18] C. Johns / Yang
The SR\u2122 gap here is enormous. Staksrud/Daescu (1872) lost a competitive semifinal to Johns/Tardio. Collin Johns/Len Yang (1580) got demolished 11-3, 11-3 by Alshon/Patriquin. Our model gives the [4] seed an 84.3% edge.
\u{1F949} Model Pick
Staksrud / Daescu
SR\u2122 1872 \u00b7 84.3% \u00b7 293-point ELO edge \u25b6
Almost a 300-point SR\u2122 gap. Staksrud/Daescu played a competitive semifinal vs the [1] seed. Johns/Yang got bageled in theirs. This should be straightforward.
\u2640\u2640 Women's Doubles \u2014 BRONZE
[2] J. Johnson / Hurricane Black vs [4] Schneemann / Pisnik
The [2] seed got upset by Todd/Rohrabacher in the semis and now fights for bronze. Schneemann/Pisnik lost 11-9, 11-4 to ALW/Bright. Model favors the [2] seed's SR\u2122 advantage.
\u{1F949} Model Pick
J. Johnson / Hurricane Black
SR\u2122 1867 \u00b7 68.3% \u00b7 134-point ELO edge \u25b6
The [2] seed should bounce back here. 134-point SR\u2122 advantage. Jorja Johnson's consistency and Tyra Hurricane Black's power should be too much for the [4] seed.
\u2642\u2640 Mixed Doubles \u2014 BRONZE
[2] JW Johnson / Jorja Johnson vs [5] Daescu / Todd
Both semifinal losers slug it out for bronze. JW/Jorja got upset by Oncins/Pisnik. Daescu/Todd got crushed 11-8, 11-1 by Johns/ALW. Our model gives the [2] seed the edge on SR\u2122, but both teams will be motivated after disappointing semifinal exits.
\u{1F949} Model Pick
JW Johnson / Jorja Johnson
SR\u2122 1933 \u00b7 63.5% \u00b7 96-point ELO edge \u25b6
JW and Jorja's sibling chemistry should help them rebound. 96-point SR\u2122 advantage over Daescu/Todd. The Johnsons will want to salvage something from a tournament where they were expected to medal gold.
Think we're wrong? Tell us on X \u2192
Predictions by The Dink Sheet AI Model \u00b7 Championship Sunday \u00b7 Mar 8, 2026
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