Newport Beach Open: Ben Johns Is Napping His Way to Another Title. Can Anyone Wake Him Up?

1,000 PPA points. Full field. Newport Beach. The SXY Newport Beach Open (Mar 2–8, Newport Beach Tennis Center) is a full-field major stop — and our Sheet Rating™ model, built on 7,500+ verified PPA match results with 87.4% prediction accuracy, has a LOT to say about who's walking away with hardware and who's booking an early flight home.

Let's skip the fluff. No "anything can happen on any given day" copouts. We have the data. We have opinions. Let's go.

📋 Tournament Quick Facts

Event: SXY Newport Beach Open
Dates: March 2–8, 2026
Venue: Newport Beach Tennis Center, Newport Beach, CA
Points: 1,000 PPA Tour Points
Events: Men's Singles, Women's Singles, Men's Doubles, Women's Doubles, Mixed Doubles

📊 Sheet Rating™ Power Rankings: The Men Are Pretending This Is a Competition

It's not. One man sits at the top. The rest are fighting for the privilege of losing to him in the final. Here are the numbers.

The gap is absurd. Ben Johns sits at 2,011 overall — 81 points above #2 Andrei Daescu. In SR™ terms, that's not a gap, it's a canyon. Johns doesn't just have a gap in SR™. He has a gap in tax brackets. His mixed doubles rating of 2,107 is the highest single-format rating in our entire database. And he looks bored doing it.

Johns doesn't look fast because he doesn't need to be. He plays like Father Time interrupted his nap — shuffles to the right spot, flicks a winner, yawns. 2,011 SR™ doing the absolute minimum. The man plays pickleball the way a tenured professor teaches Intro to Biology. He's done this before. He'll do it again. He might not even remember your name afterward.

Now look at the trends. Alshon is sliding (↓ from his peak) — Cape Coral was not kind to him and the numbers noticed. Meanwhile Staksrud keeps climbing (↑). The Argentine has the most balanced profile on tour: 1,801 singles, 1,811 doubles, 1,797 mixed. He's elite everywhere and getting better. Federico doesn't play for silver. If he flames out early, expect broken paddles, a bench that needs replacing, and a flight home he booked before the tournament started.

The Romanian Magician: Andrei Daescu

Andrei Daescu sits at #2 overall with a 1,930 SR™. Let that sink in. The man doesn't even play singles — zero singles matches in our database — and he's still the second-highest rated player in pro pickleball. His doubles Sheet Rating™ of 1,955 is closing in on Johns' 2,036, and his mixed (1,904) is elite. Playing amazing for a man his age — the Romanian magician keeps defying Father Time. Only problem? Nobody can understand a word he says in post-match interviews. Doesn't matter. His paddle does all the talking. Daescu's doubles rating history reads like a stock chart you wish you'd bought early: 1,840 → 1,900 → 1,955 — nothing but up. At some point we have to stop calling him a sleeper and start calling him what he is: the second-best player on tour.

And then there's JW Johnson. Trending ↓. Overall SR™ at 1,818 — down from a peak of 1,962. Doubles at 1,808 while Tardio sits at 2,005. That's a 197-point gap. JW used to be the guy everyone feared. Now he's the guy everyone circles as a winnable match. His doubles Sheet Rating™ has dropped from 1,826 → 1,808 over recent events. His singles? 1,597. That's not top-5 material. That's barely top-10. The only format keeping his stock from total collapse is mixed doubles (1,924) — and even that peaked at 1,962 and has been sliding. Newport Beach is either the redemption arc or the confirmation that JW Johnson is yesterday's news.

Men's Singles: Haworth Is Coming for Everybody's Lunch

Christopher Haworth leads our men's singles SR™ at 1,860 — above Hunter Johnson (1,857), Staksrud (1,801), and Andrei Daescu (1,777). Johns isn't even in the singles draw this week. The king of doubles and mixed is sitting this one out — which opens the door for a wide-open bracket. Without Father Time lurking, this is anyone's tournament to take.

Haworth's been on a tear (trending ↑), but he's only played 92 total matches. Small sample caveat applies. But here's the thing — the model doesn't care about your reputation. It cares about results. And Haworth's results say he's the best singles player on tour right now. Period.

📊 Sheet Rating™ Power Rankings: ALW's World. Everyone Else Pays Rent.

ALW is not competing. She's collecting. Anna Leigh Waters' 2,068 overall is 155 points above #2 Anna Bright. Her doubles rating of 2,125 is the most dominant number in pickleball, full stop. You didn't need our model to tell you that — just look for the $2M Prevost parked outside the venue. She's not here to compete. She's here to collect.

The two Annas are the story of pro pickleball in one frame. Anna Bright's mom is courtside hustling sign-ups for the mailing list. ALW's mom is making sure her daughter's Gucci fit is camera-ready. Two completely different pickleball economies sharing the same court. Bright is out there WORKING for every dollar and every fan — grinding through every format, posting the content, building the brand with sweat equity. ALW was born into pickleball royalty. Both elite. Totally different worlds. And the Sheet Rating™ gap — 155 points — says the royalty is winning.

What happened to Parris Todd? She pulled out of singles entirely, and her doubles results make it look like she mentally checked out there too. Trending ↓ across the board — overall at 1,774, doubles sliding from 1,762 → 1,739, mixed down from a peak of 1,785. Parenteau (1,754), Jansen (1,695 ↑), and the rest of the field smell blood. Todd was top-3 not long ago. Those days feel like ancient history. The talent that had her peaking at 1,823 in singles is being wasted. Newport Beach is either the wake-up call or the obituary.

Watch Lea Jansen. She's the only woman in the top 8 trending upward (↑). With 265 matches of experience, she's battle-tested and peaking at the right time. Everyone's sleeping on her. We're not.

The Kawamoto Sisters: All the Talent, None of the Composure

Jade Kawamoto (1,756 overall, 1,816 doubles) and Jackie Kawamoto (1,732 overall, 1,779 doubles) are two of the most talented doubles players on the women's tour. Both trending ↑. Both climbing fast — Jade's doubles Sheet Rating™ has rocketed from 1,484 to 1,816, and Jackie's from 1,484 to 1,779. The problem? Every time the Kawamoto Sisters reach a final, they look like they're beating themselves. The talent is there — the composure isn't. At some point the sisters need to stop playing each other and start playing their opponents. They've got 219 combined matches of experience now. The ceiling is top-5 women's doubles. The floor is another heartbreaking semifinal exit where they give away a 9-4 lead. Newport Beach will tell us which version shows up.

🔥 Key Matchups: Where Dreams Die

Men's Singles: Haworth (1,860) vs. Johns (1,766)

Our model gives Haworth the edge in singles. Full stop. But Johns has 353 matches of experience vs. Haworth's 92. When these two meet — and they will — it's peak form vs. the guy who's seen everything. Johns will shuffle to his spots, look half-asleep, and still make you earn every point. Haworth doesn't care. He's here to take what's his. Sheet Rating™ gap: 94 points in Haworth's favor. That's not close.

Women's Singles: ALW (2,030) vs. Fahey (1,870)

This is the semifinal or final everyone expects. Fahey is the best pure singles player outside of Waters — that 1,870 is legit. But the 160-point gap is a death sentence. Our model gives Waters ~73% win probability. Fahey needs to play the match of her life. ALW just needs to show up.

Men's Doubles: Johns (2,036) vs. Tardio (2,005) — The Real Story

Thirty-one points. That's it. That's the gap between the throne and the revolution. Tardio is doing all the heavy lifting while Johns keeps eyeing the cot in the corner. Johns plays doubles like he's doing his partner a favor by showing up. 2,005 doubles Sheet Rating™ for Tardio — the man is EARNING those points. Johns is just collecting them. If Tardio gets a kind draw and Johns has one of his "I'd rather be napping" days, this is where the crown slips.

Mixed Doubles: The JW Johnson Paradox

JW Johnson's overall is trending ↓ (1,818), but his mixed doubles Sheet Rating™ is a beastly 1,924 — third highest among men. It's the one format where he still looks like the player everyone thought he'd become. The question is whether the overall slide finally bleeds into his safe space, or if mixed doubles remains the one thing keeping his stock from total freefall.

🏆 Our Predictions (87.4% Model Accuracy — We've Earned This)

🌶️ Bold Takes — No Hedging, No Apologies

📈 Coming In Hot: Mesa Cup & Cape Coral Context

The Mesa Cup and Cape Coral Open gave us 2,050+ completed matches to feed our model. Here's what the data said — and what you should remember walking into Newport Beach:

Ben Johns' mixed doubles dominance grew. His MXD SR™ jumped to 2,107 — highest in the database. The man added to his lead while looking like he was calculating his grocery list between points. Peak Johns: domination through sheer indifference.

The women's field is separating into tiers, and the tiers have tiers. Waters pulled further ahead while Todd slid. The structure is now: ALW (2,068) → daylight → Bright/Black (1,900s) → more daylight → everyone else. There is no women's GOAT debate. The numbers ended it. Anyone still arguing is doing it for engagement, not accuracy.

Young guns are kicking the door down. Patriquin (↑), Tardio (↑), and Staksrud (↑) are all trending upward and under 25. The next generation isn't knocking — they're kicking it down, raiding the fridge, and asking for the WiFi password. The old guard better have a plan.

🎯 DUPR vs. Our Sheet Rating™: Why We Don't Trust DUPR (And Neither Should You)

Let's talk about the elephant in the room. DUPR is the "official" rating system of pro pickleball. It's also deeply, hilariously flawed for predicting who actually beats who at the pro level.

Here's the problem: DUPR includes recreational play. Self-reported scores. Your uncle's 4.0 Tuesday night league. It all goes into the same blender. At the pro level, DUPR has everyone crammed between 5.5 and 7.0 — which tells you about as much as a horoscope tells you about your love life.

Our Sheet Rating™ is different. Built from 7,500+ verified PPA match results only. No rec games. No self-reporting. No "I definitely won 11-4" texts to your buddy. Just cold, hard, verified pro match data.

The result? 87.4% prediction accuracy across 7,500 matches. Go ahead and ask DUPR for their accuracy number. We'll wait. (Spoiler: they won't tell you. Because they don't track it. Because they know.)

Want a real example? Look at this:

DUPR says JW Johnson is the better doubles player. DUPR gives him a 7.099 to Tardio's 6.979. Case closed, right?

Our Sheet Rating™ says: absolutely not. Tardio sits at 2,005 doubles Sheet Rating™. JW is at 1,808. That's a 197-point gap — in the opposite direction. In our model, Tardio wins that matchup roughly 75% of the time. DUPR would have you picking JW. Our model would have you picking Tardio. We're right 87.4% of the time. Pick your side.

DUPR is fine for figuring out if your neighbor is a 3.5 or a 4.0. For predicting pro outcomes? Use a real model. Use ours →

💰 Betting Edge: Where the Value Is

Our Sheet Rating™ model doesn't just rank players — it generates win probabilities for any matchup. And when those probabilities disagree with sportsbook odds, that's where value lives.

Here's the math: Expected Win % = 1 / (1 + 10^((Rating_B - Rating_A) / K)). The exact parameters are proprietary, but the output is simple: a win probability for every match. . Simple. Powerful. And it's been right 87.4% of the time. Here's how to use it:

The key: Sheet Rating™ gaps of 50+ points are significant. That's roughly a 57% win probability — enough edge to matter over time. Use our head-to-head compare tool to run any matchup yourself.

📍 The Bottom Line

Our Sheet Rating™ model says Newport Beach is Ben Johns' and Anna Leigh Waters' tournament to lose. And historically, they don't lose. Johns will sleepwalk through doubles and mixed. ALW will do ALW things. The sun will rise. Water will be wet.

But the margins are thinning. Tardio is 31 points back in doubles and gaining. Haworth owns singles SR™. Staksrud is the most balanced player on tour and rising. The women's doubles race behind ALW is a dogfight between Black, Bright, and Parenteau — and Jansen is trending into the conversation.

This is a 1,000-point event. Everyone's playing for real. The data says we'll see fireworks. And if we're wrong? Hey, we're still right 87.4% of the time. What's YOUR number?

All Sheet Ratings™ from The Dink Sheet's proprietary model, updated through Cape Coral Open results. Run your own matchups with our compare tool. Follow along with live scores and bracket updates at /ppa/newport-beach.