1,500 PPA points. Full field. Black Desert Resort. The Greater Zion Cup (Mar 23–29, Ivins, UT) is the second-biggest event on the 2026 calendar — only Mesa Cup matched it. 1,056 players registered. Pro registration closed March 16. The field is locked. And our Sheet Rating™ model, built on 7,500+ verified PPA match results with 87.4% prediction accuracy, has a LOT to say.
Let’s skip the “anything can happen” copouts. We have data. We have opinions. And after what happened in Texas? We have storylines for days.
Quick Facts
Event: Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort
Dates: March 23–29, 2026
Venue: Black Desert Resort, Ivins, UT
Points: 1,500 PPA Tour Points (second-highest tier)
Events: Men’s Singles, Women’s Singles, Men’s Doubles, Women’s Doubles, Mixed Doubles
Broadcast: PickleballTV (Tue–Sun), Fox Sports 1 & 2 (Thu–Sun)
Registered: 1,056 players
What Happened in Texas (And Why It Changes Everything)
Before we get to predictions, let’s talk about what the Veolia Texas Open just told us. Because it told us a LOT.
Federico Staksrud won Men’s Singles. Not as the favorite. As the 5 seed. Down a set to Haworth in the final — 2-11 in game one — and then rattled off 11-5, 11-5 to take the title. That’s not a win. That’s a statement. The Argentine didn’t just beat Haworth. He broke him.
Anna Leigh Waters won TRIPLE GOLD. Again. WS (11-1, 11-6 over Fahey), WD with Bright (11-2, 11-6, 11-4), and MXD with Johns (11-4, 9-11, 11-5, 11-6). Three events, three golds, barely broke a sweat. The only set she dropped all tournament was in mixed doubles. Against Bright and Patriquin. And she still won in four.
JW Johnson went 0-for-3. Out in every event. Lost to the 51 seed in MS. The freefall continues. His overall SR™ has dropped from 1,962 at peak to 1,814 now. That’s not a slump. That’s a restructuring.
Tardio and Johns won MD — including an 11-0 bagel in game one of the final against Daescu/Staksrud. The partnership is clicking. And Tardio’s doubles SR™ of 2,010 is closing the gap on Johns’ 2,041. Thirty-one points. That’s it.
Men’s SR™ Power Rankings: The Crown Is Up for Grabs
| # | Player | Overall | Singles | Doubles | Mixed | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Johns | 2,015 | 1,766 | 2,041 | 2,107 | — |
| 2 | Andrei Daescu | 1,931 | — | 1,954 | 1,906 | — |
| 3 | Gabriel Tardio | 1,895 | — | 2,010 | 1,883 | ↑ |
| 4 | Hayden Patriquin | 1,891 | — | 1,905 | 1,900 | ↑ |
| 5 | Christian Alshon | 1,864 | 1,819 | 1,881 | 1,886 | ↓ |
| 6 | JW Johnson | 1,814 | 1,607 | 1,785 | 1,934 | ↓ |
| 7 | Federico Staksrud | 1,798 | 1,798 | 1,811 | 1,781 | ↑ |
| 8 | Christopher Haworth | 1,680 | 1,847 | — | — | ↓ |
Ben Johns sits at 2,015 overall. But here’s the thing everyone’s missing: his singles SR™ is only 1,766. That’s 7th among men, behind Staksrud (1,798), Alshon (1,819), and Haworth (1,847). Father Time dominates doubles and mixed like he’s playing a different sport — his mixed doubles SR™ of 2,107 is the highest single-format rating in our entire database — but singles? He’s mortal. And the field knows it.
Staksrud is the story of 2026. The Argentine just won Texas Open MS from the 5 seed, coming back from a set down to beat Haworth in the final. His SR™ profile is the most balanced on tour: 1,798 singles, 1,811 doubles, 1,781 mixed. Elite in every format. Trending ↑ everywhere. At 1,500 points, a deep run here would vault him into the top 5 overall. The guy who everyone called a “dark horse” six months ago is now the defending MS champion walking into the biggest event of the spring. He’s not dark anymore. He’s the horse.
JW Johnson’s collapse continues. 0-for-3 in Texas. Overall down to 1,814 from a peak of 1,962. Singles at 1,607 — that’s not even top 15 material. Doubles at 1,785 while Tardio sits at 2,010. The only format keeping JW relevant is mixed doubles (1,934), and even that’s been sliding. Greater Zion is either rock bottom or the beginning of the end. At 1,500 points, a poor showing here would be catastrophic for his season.
Tardio is the best doubles player not named Johns. His 2,010 doubles SR™ puts him 31 points behind Johns — and the gap has been shrinking every tournament. Tardio doesn’t play with the casual indifference of his partner. He plays like every point might be his last meal. If Johns has one of his “I’d rather be napping” days in Ivins, Tardio’s the one carrying them to gold anyway.
Jack Sock: The Tennis Convert Who Plays Like He’s at a Cookout
Jack Sock is the most entertaining player on tour. Former ATP player, Grand Slam finalist, and somehow the most relaxed person on any court he steps on. He plays pickleball like he’s at a backyard party and someone handed him a paddle between beers. And he’s WINNING. Sock brings a legitimate tennis pedigree to a luxury resort venue — Black Desert might as well roll out a red carpet. The crowd will be his. The question is whether the SR™ numbers will be too.
Women’s SR™ Power Rankings: ALW’s World. Rent Is Due.
| # | Player | Overall | Singles | Doubles | Mixed | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anna Leigh Waters | 2,069 | 2,031 | 2,126 | 2,040 | ↑ |
| 2 | Anna Bright | 1,902 | — | 1,906 | 1,922 | — |
| 3 | Tyra Hurricane Black | 1,873 | — | 1,914 | 1,829 | — |
| 4 | Jorja Johnson | 1,804 | 1,646 | 1,740 | 1,903 | — |
| 5 | Parris Todd | 1,784 | 1,823 | — | — | ↓ |
| 6 | CJ Klinger | 1,782 | — | 1,848 | — | ↑ |
| 7 | Tina Pisnik | 1,781 | — | — | — | ↑ |
| 8 | Kate Fahey | 1,762 | 1,848 | 1,711 | 1,702 | — |
ALW is not competing. She’s collecting. Triple gold in Texas. Her overall SR™ of 2,069 is 167 points above #2 Anna Bright. Her doubles rating of 2,126 is the most dominant number in pickleball. She just beat Fahey 11-1, 11-6 in the Texas Open WS final. Eleven to one. That’s not a match. That’s a formal execution.
Greater Zion is 1,500 points — 50% more than Texas. If ALW goes triple gold again, she doesn’t just extend her lead. She makes the 2026 race mathematically irrelevant for everyone else. The question isn’t IF she wins. It’s whether anyone can take a single set off her.
Kate Fahey is the best singles player not named ALW. Her 1,848 singles SR™ is elite. But she just got 11-1’d in the Texas Open final. There’s a difference between being the second-best singles player on tour and being competitive with the best. Right now, Fahey is the former. The gap — 183 points in singles — is a canyon.
Parris Todd is trending the wrong direction. Down to 1,784 overall and ↓ in our model. She pulled out of doubles entirely in recent events. The talent that had her peaking at 1,823 in singles is being wasted. At 1,500 points, Greater Zion either starts her redemption arc or confirms the slide is permanent.
CJ Klinger and Tina Pisnik are both trending ↑ and crashing the top 8. Klinger’s 1,848 doubles SR™ puts her in the conversation with anyone on the women’s side. These two aren’t household names yet. By Sunday, they might be.
Key Matchups: Where Dreams Die
Men’s Singles: Staksrud (1,798) vs. Haworth (1,847) — The Rematch
Haworth still leads men’s singles SR™ at 1,847. But Staksrud just beat him in the Texas Open final — from a set down. The numbers say Haworth should win (~57%). The tape says Staksrud has his number. When these two meet again — and they will — it’s the immovable object (Haworth’s SR™) vs. the unstoppable force (Staksrud’s momentum). Advantage: vibes say Staksrud.
Women’s Singles: ALW (2,031) vs. The Field
It’s not a matchup. It’s a funeral. ALW’s 2,031 singles SR™ is 183 points above Fahey (1,848). Our model gives Waters ~76% win probability against any opponent in the draw. The only way she loses is if she decides to lose. And Anna Leigh Waters doesn’t do that.
Men’s Doubles: Johns/Tardio (2,041/2,010) vs. Everyone
Combined SR™ of 4,051. They just 11-0’d the first game of the Texas Open MD final. Tardio is closing the gap on Johns — 31 points and shrinking. The question isn’t whether they win. It’s whether Tardio eclipses Johns’ doubles SR™ by the time it’s over. Daescu (1,954) and whoever he partners with are the only credible threat.
Mixed Doubles: Johns (2,107) + ALW (2,040) = Unfair
Combined SR™ of 4,147. That’s not a team, it’s a war crime. The next closest combination — Patriquin (1,900) + Bright (1,922) — clocks in at 3,822. A 325-point combined gap. The only question is whether Johns looks bored or very bored while winning.
Our Predictions (87.4% Model Accuracy)
Bold Takes — No Hedging, No Apologies
Staksrud goes back-to-back in Men’s Singles. The Argentine is the most dangerous player in pickleball right now. He doesn’t have the highest SR™ — he has the highest ceiling. The Texas Open comeback was the moment Staksrud went from “really good” to “the guy everyone’s afraid to draw.” At Black Desert, with 1,500 points on the line? He’s going to play like his life depends on it. Because for his ranking, it does.
ALW goes triple gold for the second straight tournament. Back-to-back triple golds would be the most dominant stretch in the history of professional pickleball. Her combined SR™ advantage across all three formats is absurd. The rest of the women’s tour isn’t competing against her — they’re competing for silver. And at 1,500 points, that silver is worth a lot more than usual.
JW Johnson doesn’t make a single semifinal. After going 0-for-3 in Texas, the spiral is real. His singles SR™ of 1,607 is barely top 15. His doubles at 1,785 is mediocre by elite standards. The only thing keeping JW relevant is mixed doubles (1,934), and even that requires Jorja Johnson (1,903) to carry. Greater Zion is 1,500 points — the stakes are higher, the pressure is heavier, and JW has shown zero ability to handle either lately.
Tardio’s doubles SR™ passes Johns by Sunday. The gap is 31 points and closing every tournament. Tardio is at 2,010 and rising. Johns is at 2,041 and coasting. One big performance from Tardio — or one Johns off-day — and the torch passes. It might not matter for gold (they play together), but it matters for history. The best doubles player in pickleball might not be named Johns much longer.
Betting Edge: Where the Value Is
Our SR™ model generates win probabilities for any matchup. When those probabilities disagree with sportsbook odds, that’s where value lives. Use our head-to-head compare tool to run any matchup yourself.
The Venue Factor: Black Desert Is Different
This isn’t McKinney. Black Desert Resort is a luxury destination — Tom Weiskopf golf course, full-service spa, red-rock desert backdrop. The Humana Championship Court and Carvana Grandstand Court are premium setups. Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2 are broadcasting. The production value is higher. The stakes are higher. And at 1,500 points, every match from R16 onward matters for season-long positioning.
The outdoor desert conditions in Southern Utah in late March mean cool mornings (50s), warm afternoons (70s), and potential wind off the canyon walls. Players who adapt to conditions early will have an edge. Players who complain about it will be watching from the spa by Friday.
The Bottom Line
Greater Zion is 1,500 points — half again as much as Texas Open. The margins for error are thinner. The rewards for winning are bigger. And after what just happened in McKinney, the storylines write themselves.
Staksrud proved he’s for real. ALW proved she’s untouchable. Johns proved he can sleepwalk to gold in any team format. JW proved he’s in trouble. Tardio proved the doubles gap is closing.
Our SR™ model says the favorites will hold. History says they usually do. But at 1,500 points, with the desert wind blowing and 1,056 players fighting for position? This is where seasons are made and reputations are broken.
All Sheet Ratings™ from The Dink Sheet’s proprietary model, updated through Texas Open results. Run your own matchups with our compare tool. Follow along with live scores and bracket updates at /ppa/greater-zion.
Disclaimer: The Dink Sheet does not promote or facilitate gambling. All betting references are for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future results. Our 87.4% model accuracy is based on historical PPA match data and may not reflect future performance.
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